วันจันทร์ Sep 29 2025 01:20
2 นาที
In a recent survey, the overwhelming majority of academic economists expressed their preference for Christopher Waller to succeed Jerome Powell as the Chair of the Federal Reserve. However, few believe that this will actually happen.
The survey, conducted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business's Global Markets Initiative, found that 82% of participating economists would choose Waller as the head of the world's most important central bank. Yet, only one-fifth believe he will succeed Powell in 2026. Conversely, 39% of the 44 respondents believe Kevin Hassett, the White House National Economic Council Chairman, is the most likely to take the helm.
This divergence between who economists want in the job and who they believe will get it reflects the immense pressure the Federal Reserve endured under former President Donald Trump. Trump repeatedly stated his desire for the Fed to lower interest rates to 1%, claiming it would boost growth and reduce borrowing costs for the US government. He harshly criticized Powell for refusing to aggressively lower rates.
Concerns are growing about the Federal Reserve's independence in light of political interference. These concerns are evident in recent appointments and attempts to influence monetary policy. These interventions raise questions about the Fed's ability to make independent decisions that serve the economy in the long term.
It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve traditionally enjoys significant independence to protect the economy from short-term political interventions. However, increasing pressure from the US administration may undermine this independence.
The incoming Fed Chair will face significant challenges, including a weakening labor market and rising inflation driven by Trump's tariffs on imported goods. Most Fed officials believe Trump's tariffs will lead to a one-time price increase for a few US goods and are putting slowing job creation at risk of an American inflationary wave.
In addition, the surveyed academic economists believe that the prospect of stagflation, that is, rising unemployment and inflation simultaneously, is increasing. This scenario could make it difficult to make appropriate monetary policy decisions.
Significant challenges remain for the Federal Reserve and its incoming Chair. It requires wise leadership and the ability to make independent decisions to protect the US economy from potential risks.
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